Ricky Bishop
Guest Columnist
Well, Congressional elections are in full swing, and we have our party nominees for each office already decided. So now lets take a minute and turn our attention to the 2011 gubernatorial election. Yeah, yeah, I know it is early, but in Mississippi an election begins the day after the previous election ends. In fact, the 2011 gubernatorial election is already shaping up, and it looks like it could be a wild ride.
On the Republican side we have former State Auditor and current Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant almost certain to run, and also the current front runner for the nomination. But he will not be alone, as gulf coast businessman Dave Dennis has all but thrown his hat in the ring as the non-establishment candidate. Then there is the wild card potential candidate Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann. Finally, there are the people that have to be mentioned but will, in my opinion, not be a dog in this race. These people are former Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck and current State Treasurer Tate Reeves.
Lt. Governor Bryant was first appointed to state wide office in 1996 by former Governor Kirk Fordice while serving as a State Representative. He then went on to win the election in 1999 and re-election in 2003. Lt. Governor Bryant would be considered the front runner in the primary by virtue of his name recognition and by him being on a state wide election ballot three times.
Dave Dennis, a gulf coast businessman and ex-New Orleans Federal Reserve Board Chairman, would try to run a non-establishment outsider campaign to the tune of former Governor Kirk Fordice’s surprise primary win back in 1991. In fact, Governor Kirk Fordice kicked off his successful re-election campaign from Dave Dennis’s home.
Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann first won elective office in the 2007 election as Secretary of State. Secretary Hosemann also was the Republican nominee for the House of Representatives in the 4th Congressional district in the 1998 election. Secretary Hosemann has been flirting with the idea of throwing his hat into the ring for Governor, but in my opinion, he will choose not to challenge Lt. Governor Bryant as he is a relative newcomer as an elected office holder. As an accomplished lawyer I believe Secretary Hosemann would be a great candidate to challenge Attorney General Jim Hood, but there has been no speculation of this and is just my opinion.
Amy Tuck, now Special Assistant to the President of Mississippi State University Mark Keenum, has her hands full where she is at and is not the type of person to run a campaign unless it has been well planned out for a long time. From the fine work she has done at Mississippi State I do not see where she has had the time to do this type of planning, but she can be sneaky and we might get surprised.
State Treasurer Tate Reeves came out of nowhere and won the 2003 primary and went on to win the general election. Four years later he went on to win re-election with the highest percentage of anyone running for state wide office. Treasurer Reeves is an accomplished fundraiser, which would make him a contender in the 2011 gubernatorial elections, but he is young and I don’t think he is ready to make the step into the big league. Look for Treasurer Reeves to make a step into the minor league and run for Lt. Governor in 2011.
Moving on to the Democratic side we have Clarksdale Attorney Bill Luckett who is also a business partner with actor Morgan Freeman. Bill Luckett is all but certain to run as he has made his intentions quite clear. Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny Dupree is a definite candidate as he already has his campaign website up. Then we have our Democratic primary wild card candidates, Attorney General Jim Hood and current 1st district Congressman Travis Childers.
Bill Luckett would be considered the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination because of his personal wealth and his connection to Hollywood’s personal wealth. If, or should I say when, he runs look for himself and Morgan Freeman to be his top two contributors.
Mayor Johnny Dupree, who as I have mentioned has already officially announced and has already gone live with his website, should be considered a major factor. Mayor Dupree would be the first African American nominee for Governor of any major party if nominated. Mayor Dupree also seems to be doing a good job as Mayor of Hattiesburg. The trouble Mayor Dupree has brought upon himself is the fact that he has announced too early. By announcing early, he has given his potential candidates, currently known or not known, time to research, watch his every move, and build a case against him.
Attorney General Jim Hood has already announced that he will be running for re-election for Attorney General in the 2011 elections, but do not count him out yet. General Hood could change his mind if he finds out he would have just as hard fought race for Attorney General as he would have had for Governor. This could be accomplished by an Attorney General opponent in any primary emerging that is very formable, like previously mentioned Secretary of state Delbert Hosemann.
Finally, on the Democratic side Congressman Travis Childers is mentioned. Congressman Childers is currently in the fight of his life to hold on to his Congressional seat. So why would he even begin to be thinking about considering a race for Governor in 2011? The simple answer to this question is what if he loses. If he loses the race for the 1st Congressional district then he is out of an elected job but with good name recognition in the state. If he then decides to make a run for Governor in 2011 in the Democratic primary, he would automatically become the front runner. Do not count this scenario out by any means.
WILD CARD EXTRA: There is one potential candidate for Governor who is worth mentioning before we wrap up and that is State Supreme Court Chief Justice William (Bill) Waller, Jr. Justice Waller is not only the current Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court but is also the son of former Governor Bill Waller, Sr. Justice Waller has been mentioned around political circles as a possible candidate for Governor in the Democratic primary. In my opinion, Justice Waller is too conservative to run in the Democratic primary and would be a better fit in the Republican primary. The only problem with the Republican primary for him is that it would be too crowded and cost him a heck of a lot more money to be competitive. He could go the independent route and forgo a primary and save his money until the primaries are over and the general election begins. This type of speculation is all fun and games for political observers, but do not expect anything to come of it. He is the Chief Justice, and I believe he has every intention of retiring with that title.
Ricky Bishop
Starkville, MS
Co-author, The Friendly Fire Blog
www.thefriendlyfire.info
His column does not reflect the views of Starkville-Now.com.
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